Fifty-nine years ago, on this day, November 2nd, 1966, Manabe and Weatherald’s pivotal paper was submitted
“According to our estimate, a doubling of the CO2 content in the atmosphere has the effect of raising the temperature of the atmosphere (whose relative humidity is fixed) by about 2C. Our model does not have the extreme sensitivity of atmospheric temperature to changes of CO2 content which was adduced by Möller.”
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 321ppm. As of 2025, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.
The broader context was questions of what would happen if carbon dioxide levels went up dramatically (the Keeling Curve was relatively flat back then, but simple extrapolation suggested trouble) was mostly of scientific interest at the time.
The specific context was the carbon dioxide issue had received a boost in 1965 with Lyndon Johnson’s message to Congress about pollution, and a report at the end of the year by the President’s Science Advisory Committee (see November 7th).
What I think we can learn from this – the scientists were looking into it…
What happened next – it got published, obvs. And their 1975 paper was an even bigger deal…
What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.
Also on this day:
November 2, 1957 – “Our Coal Fires are melting the poles” Birmingham Post
November 2, 1972 – “Eco-pornography … Advertising owns Ecology”…
November 2, 1994 – Greenpeace vs climate risk for corporates…