Categories
Academia Coal United States of America

February 18, 2003 – “Coal Fires Burning Around the World: A Global Catastrophe”

Twenty three years ago, on this day, February 18, 2003,

This special coal fires edition of the International Journal of Coal Geology is a by-product of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) symposium entitled Coal Fires Burning Around the World: A Global Catastrophe, held on February 18, 2003 in Denver, CO. The purpose of the symposium, organized and convened by Glenn B. Stracher of East Georgia College, Robert B. Finkelman of the U.S. Geological Survey in Reston, VA, and Tammy P. Taylor of Los Alamos National Laboratory, NM, was to disclose the severity of the coal fires problem to the scientific, engineering, and lay communities and to promote interest in the interdisciplinary study of this environmental catastrophe.

http://www.sciencedirect.com.manchester.idm.oclc.org/science/article/pii/S0166516204000096

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 376ppm. As of 2026 it is 428ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The broader context was that scientists had been measuring carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere accurately since 1958, and had been speculating about shitfuckery of monumental proportions, And from the late 70s that speculation had firmed up, there were various efforts to disprove or to test the idea significantly. For example, the Charney Report. But these had come to naught because of politicians’ ignorance and a lack of a social movement/civil society push.

It’s fairly elementary. 19th century physics, Greenhouse gases trap heat. Carbon dioxide is one, not the only greenhouse gas. If you put lots more of it into the atmosphere, you will get more heat. Take a look at Venus..

The specific context was that by 2003 it was clear that the United States, under George W Bush was not going to be any better, in fact, possibly even worse than his dad, and that there was going to be hell to pay. 

Of course, that hell would be paid, in the first instance, by all the other species on the planet, and people, mostly not rich and white and people not yet born. But hell has a way of catching up with you. And here we are in 2026. 

What I think we can learn from this is that the warnings have been endless, and there is a subset of humanity that just doesn’t give a fuck, and they are able to hire all sorts of goons, physical goons like ICE, intellectual goons like, well, frankly, most of academia, including humanities and well, it’s their planet. We just cling to the edges of it

What happened next: Bush kept being Bush. He was then, from sort of 2002-3 onwards, bigging up” technology”, which is always their answer, regardless of how implausible it is. 

And the emissions and the concentrations and the impacts they kept making themselves felt.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

February 18, 1991 – Governor Bill Clinton says would give “serious consideration” to cuts of 20-30 per cent by 2004.

February 18, 2011 – Scientist quits advisor role (because ignored on climate?)

February 18, 2004 – “An Investigation into the Bush Administration’s Misuse of Science”

Categories
Academia Science Scientists

 December 28  – Carl Rossby (1896) and Jonny von Neumann (1903) born

A hundred and twenty plus years ago, on this day, December 28th, 1896/1903

Carl-Gustaf Rossby December 28, 1898 – August 19, 1957

Carl-Gustaf Rossby – Wikipedia

Swedish-American meteorologist who first explained the large-scale motions of the atmosphere in terms of fluid mechanics. His work contributed to developing meteorology as a science. Rossby first theorized about the existence of the jet stream in 1939, and that it governs the easterly movement of most weather. U.S. Army Air Corps pilots flying B-29 bombing missions across the Pacific Ocean during World War II proved the jet stream’s existence. The pilots found that when they flew from east to west, they experienced slower arrival times and fuel shortage problems. When flying from west to east, however, they found the opposite to be true. Rossby created mathematical models (Rossby equations) for computerized weather prediction (1950).

and

John von Neumann Born 28 Dec 1903; died 8 Feb 1957 

Hungarian-American mathematician who made important contributions in quantum physics, logic, meteorology, and computer science. He invented game theory, the branch of mathematics that analyses strategy and is now widely employed for military and economic purposes. During WW II, he studied the implosion method for bringing nuclear fuel to explosion and he participated in the development of the hydrogen bomb. He also set quantum theory upon a rigorous mathematical basis. In computer theory, von Neumann did much of the pioneering work in logical design, in the problem of obtaining reliable answers from a machine with unreliable components, the function of “memory,” and machine imitation of “randomness.”[Image left: Von Neumann with ENIAC computer.]

 John von Neumann: The Scientific Genius Who Pioneered…, by Norman MacRae. – book suggestion.

 Von Neumann is also quoted in Fortune in 1955 “Can We Survive Technology?” (spoiler – probably not)

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 295-297ppm. As of 2025, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.

The broader context was these were two seriously smart human beings.

The specific context was Rossby was born the same year Arrhenius’s paper on carbon dioxide build-up was published, lol.

What I think we can learn from this – I do wish von Neumann had lasted a bit longer – I think he might have taken more interest in CO2 build-up. But this is idle speculation and dreaming that a white saviour might have saved us. Nowt was going to save us.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

December 28, 1978 – fly the plane. Don’t keep tapping the fuel light.

December 28, 1994 – Australian Financial Review says “say yes to Tradeable Emissions Quotas”

December 28, 2002 –  Renewable Energy vs John Howard, round 55ish… –

Categories
Academia Propaganda

“Books, books, and more books”: a key climate delayer technique

The battle for the public mind is never-ending. And one of the key weapons remains… wait for it… books.

This below is inspired by reading Royce Kurmelovs’ review of a new tiresome pronuclear abundance tome that makes utterly baseless allegations about the funding behind “Friends of the Earth.” (Full disclosure, Royce is a friend, we’ve collaborated in the past and I had a very minor role in the research of this review).

A book is a “hook” – the author(s) get, er, booked, to appear on radio shows, tv programmes. The book is excerpted in newspapers, which are then quoted by columnists in papers and by politicians in parliament. The book can be the excuse for a tour of cities. The book gets you on podcasts. The book can get turned into instagram posts and tiktok videos.

None of this is new, but it is worth remembering.

Two particular (albeit American) examples should be part of any intelligent media-observer’s toolkit.

The first is the statement by Julian Simon about what the “conservative” movement needed. This from Jane Meyer tells you what you need to know.

His father evidently lost his mother’s fortune, motivating Simon to make his own. On Wall Street, he became a hugely successful partner at Salomon Brothers, where he was an early leader in the lucrative new craze for leveraged buyouts. But what neither Olin nor Simon had was influence over the next generation. “We are careening with frightening speed towards collectivism,” Simon warned.
Only an ideological battle could save the country, in Simon’s view. “What we need is a counter-intelligentsia. … [It] can be organized to challenge our ruling ‘new class’ — opinion makers,” Simon wrote. “Ideas are weapons — indeed the only weapons with which other ideas can be fought.” He argued, “Capitalism has no duty to subsidize its enemies.” Private and corporate foundations, he said, must cease “the mindless subsidizing of colleges and universities whose departments of politics, economics and history are hostile to capitalism.” Instead, they “must take pains to funnel desperately needed funds to scholars, social scientists and writers who understand the relationship between political and economic liberty,” as he put it. “They must be given grants, grants, and more grants in exchange for books, books, and more books.”
Under Simon’s guidance, the Olin foundation tried to fund the new “counterintelligentsia.” At first, it tried supporting little-known colleges where conservative ideas — and money — were welcome. But Simon and his associates soon realized that this was a losing strategy. If the Olin foundation wanted impact, it needed to infiltrate prestigious universities, especially the Ivy League.

Mayer 2016 (emphasis added).

    The second is the Joan Peters debacle. Somebody wrote a book, published under her name in 1984, about how there weren’t any Palestinians in the 19th century – “a land without people for a people without a land” stuff, and the US academics lapped it up. Then along came Norman Finkelstein and Noam Chomsky… I URGE you to read Chomsky’s account, here.

    The beauty of the book technique is that – if it comes from a ‘reputable’ publisher – it gives any old bullshit argument a heft, a solidity, it doesn’t deserve. It sells copies (publisher happy) and the author gets exposure, and bandwidth gets taken up, nonsense talking points get repeated and regurgitated, no matter how many times the book is “demolished” (see Chomsky above)

    See also

      Categories
      Academia Activism Podcasts

      Podcast: “Bridging the Carbon Gap – Adam Aron psychological insights for building the climate movement”

      This one you should listen to. I listen to a lot of podcasts, especially on climate and energy (policy, politics, etc) and they are mostly very very mid (at best).  Here’s a recent rant about the whys of that.

      This one (and another, to be reviewed soon) was the exception and perhaps almost exceptional.


      It’s by a bunch of 17 year old Americans. To repeat myself , smart 17 year olds are potentially a very good source of info because they

      a) have more skin in the game re: 2nd half of the 21st century

      b) haven’t had obedience beaten into them by The System (“man”).

      It’s a podcast by City Atlas. Who they? Well, City Altas

      “was founded to help New Yorkers and the public everywhere understand and prepare for the future, as described in the reports of the IPCC, C40.org, and the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), and to strengthen the democratic process towards equitable responses to climate change. Our emphasis is on building public energy and climate literacy as a way to create support for a fast transition to a zero carbon world.”

      They interview a guy called Professor Adam Aron, (personal website here) who was on one academic track (cognitive neuroscience) and has recently jumped to another (the psychology of collective action).

      They interview Aron about, well, building social movements and for once from an academic it isn’t banalities, generalities and apple pie.

      The transcript (not quite tidy and unhyperlinked – I have added those) is here.

      The first bit that made me sit up and take real notice was this

      “There’s a very beautiful example of this, given there’s a book called Let This Radicalize You by Haber and Kaba,  two women of color in Chicago. And in one of the chapters, I think, Kelly Hays describes how they’re busy, Miriam tries to bring her into a struggle to try and get restitution for victims of torture by the Chicago Police. It’s called reparations. Now this is back in 2014 and in that chapter, Kelly explains, you know, I didn’t think we could win. There’s no way that we would win this thing, but I nevertheless joined Miriam in her struggle anyway, even though I very much doubted we could win, in fact, they ended up winning. They actually ended up getting restitution from the Chicago Police. Kind of amazing story. So why did Kelly join Miriam? And she says, Well, I joined Miriam because I thought it would be meaningful and generative. We had a history of trust. I thought I would have an adventure. I thought that I would learn things by doing the process. I thought that I would discover sort of the limits of my courage. I would develop new skills. So I think this phenomenon of social obligation to each other and how we build that in small groups is kind of a key part of how to get the larger social mobilization.”

      On the barriers facing academics (YO, THIERRY!)

      “we actually published a paper last year in 2024 with first authors, Fabian Dablander, a brilliant young guy from the Netherlands and colleagues. And it was a survey of over 9000 academics and scientists, sort of trying to understand, you know, what are the barriers to them acting”

      Aron isn’t pollyann-ish about the difficulties facing us as a species, and the barriers facing social movement organisations.

      “But I think more broadly, there’s a whole suite of issues, the sort of lonely, atomized and fragmented reality in which we find ourselves. I referred to that earlier. This kind of I’m all alone and with my family in my house, or, you know, everything society is telling me, I just need to get ahead and get my brand and develop myself as an entrepreneur, I’m kind of deterritorialized from the place, I don’t belong anywhere. I’m a consumer. I’m locked in this kind of, you know, hyper-consumption machine, and I just need to kind of selfishly take care of myself. I mean, there’s enormous pressures on people to have that attitude psychologically. I think that is one of our major barriers, and one of the major reasons people aren’t acting, but I think also people don’t know what to do, even people who completely get that global heating is caused by the burning of fossil fuels, who understand, as many adults do, who have children, that this is really a threat now to people’s livelihoods and wellbeing and their kids lives in the next few decades, people don’t know what to do. I think that’s a really that gets back to a bigger question you asked me about, how do we mobilize the wider society? Because there’s myriad things people can do, but we really need them to act together towards really strong policy.”


      Sure, he doesn’t talk about emotacycles or the smugosphere, or ego-fodderification, but what kind of depressive maniac does that anyway.

      Does the interviewer always follow up on the interesting stuff Aron says? No, she sticks to her list of questions but a) that’s okay and b) they are good questions.  Over time, I suspect she will develop the skills and confidence start to go down (and come out of) rabbit holes with interviewees. (NB there is absolutely nothing wrong with what she is doing now).

      Is this podcast worth your time? This episode, hell yes, and I have high hopes for the others in the series.

      Categories
      Academia Activism Documentaries Fafocene

      On documentaries, delusions and doom: Why we get what we get, what we need and why we won’t get it.

      The new “Just Stop Oil” documentary is (yet) another missed opportunity to get an important conversation started about social movements, our crises and complicities, and what needs to change.


      Early on in “The Line We Crossed” the new and overlong documentary following a group of Just Stop Oil activists as they slow march their way around London in 2023, one of them says “context is massively important.” He’s referring to defences in criminal cases for obstruction and the like, but it occurred to me that this very much applies to the film.  It was only ten minutes or so in, but already my forebodings were proving true. There was no context whatsoever, not even as far back as 2018, when Extinction Rebellion (it got one scant mention) burst onto the scene, promising to force the government to make the UK zero carbon by 2025.

      There was no explanation of what climate change IS and what is causing it (we’ll come back to my encounter with a taxi driver on my way home, in another post.).

      There was no context about the way the British state acts when it…

      Look, I could go on for a loooong time about the failings of this film (in its defence, it’s mostly competently made, and doesn’t pretend to be anything it isn’t). I don’t have the energy, patience or inclination to write all that, you don’t have those to read all that, and it will come across as patriarchal bullying if I do. 

      So instead, I want to see this film as a symptom of a much much wider problem (previously I’ve used words like Smugosphere and Emotacycle – they may get a run below).

      I am going to try to answer a few questions about what social movements (made up of individuals, groups, NGOs etc) need, (don’t) get and ways forward. The list of questions is here –

      • What is it that we get (from documentaries, but also books etc) again and again. And again.
        WHY do we get that (beyond morality tales about laziness/complicity etc)
      • Why does that matter?
      • What do we need?
      • Why don’t we get it?
      • (Bonus – ignore if you’re so inclined) Why it wouldn’t matter, even if we did get it.
      • What is to be done?

      I have tackled (ranted) about this before.

      What we get time and again – “hooray for our side”

      What a field day for the heat.

      A thousand people in the street,

      Singing songs and carrying signs,

      Mostly say, “Hooray for our side.”

      Buffalo Springfield “For What It’s Worth”

      I’ve been in/around environmental protest/dissent/resistance most of my adult life; the first time I can say I was properly involved was the late 1990s.  I say this not for brownie points, or claims of expertise, but just to point out that if you stick around long enough, you see the same film pop up again and again. The title and participants change, but the song remains the same.

      I saw it around the time of Indymedia, I saw it as the 2006-2010 wave wound down (“Just Do It”). It was there during fracking (have tried to expunge that one, and am not inclined to go looking). It was there during the beginning of the “youth strike” – “Meet the Wild Things” and “The Giants.

      What these (and other films) have in common is that they are largely cheap, unreflective decontextualised hagiography (= “the making of saints”), following individuals or individuals-within-a-group as they “try to make a difference.”

      Why we get that 

      Here’s where I need to not get personal (!), or rather, engage in the Fundamental Attribution Error.  These films aren’t the way they are because of any personal failings/perspectives of the film-makers (whom I’ve not met).

      We also need to get away from cheap/easy cynicism that the documentaries are what they are because they are planned only a recruiting tool (though they often arrive too late for that, and in the case of TLWC, wouldn’t work on multiple levels) or that they are merely CV points for the film maker.

      We need to think in terms of systems, incentives, pressures (understood and ‘invisible’). Here’s a non-exhaustive list

      • Film-makers need for access to present and future subjects, and if word gets around that they are “neutral” or “questioning” they will be lumped in with the mass media, which, by and large is quite rightly mistrusted/loathed.
      • Film-makers also have a need for “hope” as a narrative
      • Film-makers need to keep funders happy (especially an issue around crowdfunding, I’d guess, but also foundations don’t like their hands bitten when they are feeding).

      Ultimately, for a host of reasons – psychological, social, financial etc – hopey-changey hagiography is path of least resistance. It is what everyone expects, and what almost everyone wants most/all of the time (I am an outlier, I know, “But I’m not the only one. I hope someday you’ll…”)

      Why does that matter?

      “Not everything that can be faced can be changed, but nothing can be changed until it is faced.”

      James Baldwin, 1962

      We are in the shit.  We have no idea what we are into here. When “the greenhouse effect” finally became a public issue in 1988, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide were roughly 352 parts per million.  Emissions spiralled upwards since then (roughly 70% higher than they were then) and atmospheric concentrations are now at 428ppm and surging annually.) 
      Most importantly for my purposes, the simple fact is that civil society has been mostly asleep at the wheel, until it is jolted into periodic half-wakefulness by brave and determined activists who demand action. Then, for various reasons, the “issue attention cycle” kicks in, the activists burn out and lick their wounds and prison sentences, technophilia reasserts itself and almost everyone goes back to sleep. 

      So what we need is individuals and groups who are able to see this pattern, and prepare for it, and sustain themselves. I wrote about this here, in 2017.

      Hagiography, where you spend far more time than you need to in the company of naive well-meaning people who learn tough lessons in the strategic and tactical capacity of the states and corporations is not helping.  There is an argument to be made that – beyond the taking-up-of-bandwidth problem – it is actually harmful, but I am not going to go there today.

      What we need

      What we need is, therefore “sense-making”

      Sensemaking or sense-making is the process by which people give meaning to their collective experiences. It has been defined as “the ongoing retrospective development of plausible images that rationalize what people are doing” (Weick, Sutcliffe, & Obstfeld, 2005, p. 409). The concept was introduced to organizational studies by Karl E. Weick in the late 1960’s and has affected both theory and practice. 

      We need cognitive maps so people know where they are, what the stakes are, what has and hasn’t ‘worked’ in the past, etc etc.

      I will use TLWC as an example, but again, it is not uniquely inadequate, it’s merely the latest (and for me last) example of the genre.

      We need films that explain, in simple terms, what climate change is (the duvet analogy works really well, in my experience). If you can find an actual climate scientist willing to say it, all the better, but they’ll probably fear for their precious reputation and “trivialising” the science. That’s just them bowing to the institutional pressure within their tribe. Mostly, they can’t help themselves. So it goes.

      We need films that explain what the state (British in this case) actually IS and what it is FOR and what it has DONE historically to those people who organise to try to get it to do something other than protect the perceived short-term interests of the people who run the State/who are protected by the state.

      People think the state is Santa Claus – a kindly old gent who will reward you if you can prove that you have been good for long enough. Documentaries like TLWC don’t do anything about this, ah, “misapprehension.” There is a glancing reference to the suffragettes, but nothing on how the State mobilised to demonise and punish those activists. If the JSo crew knew the history of the suffragettes, beyond Pankhurst #1 and #2 and perhaps Emily Davison, then they wouldn’t have been so surprised as they were by the end of the film (actually, I missed the last few minutes – a bus to catch).

      TLWC could have done even a brief job on the flurry of laws passed in the aftermath of the Napoleonic Wars, as the social consequences of the Industrial Revolution began to kick in.  It could have talked about Spycops (an astonishing oversight) and the Prevention of Terrorism Act 2000. It could have…  Note, I am NOT saying you have to go into exhaustive detail, but “context is massively important.”

      We need films that include supportive critical voices – people who are equally concerned about “The Issue”, but disagree with the particular tactics (or “strategy” if you’re being unduly generous) being pursued.

      I can’t believe I am typing this, because I am one of the most cynical people I know on the role and function of academics, but even I would – through gritted teeth – admit that some of them do have something to add and if you film say an hour you might get as much as 45 seconds of useable material out of them.  Get them talking about the history, the politics, the nature of social movements, the nature of issue-attention cycles etc etc etc.

      Basically, making an entire film out of a-roll and (quite a lot of) b-roll of activists “on the ground” is cloying, claustrophobic and senseless-making.  TLWC had only a handful of “outsiders” – Suella Braverman, Jocelyn Maugham, someone from Liberty and a semi-outsider, Tim from Defend Our Juries. 

      We need films that ask activists to expound on some of the challenges – pushback from family and friends (and how they handle it), how they deal with hostility from the General Public (there’s footage in TLWC of an enraged motorist snatching banners and smacking mobiles out of activists hands. I am not saying he was right, or that he should necessarily be given “air time” to explain his views, but how about at least getting the JSO people to reflect on that?)

      We need films (and groups) to talk about why people don’t stay involved (and they largely don’t, through little/no fault of their own. The way organisations are, they’re basically decruitment engines.  Irony – at least three people in the audience gave up on the film before I had to leave).

      Why we won’t get it (see also “why we get that” above)

      The kind of film I am talking about is not going to get made (though I would be genuinely delighted to be proved wrong – have at me in the comments.

      Basically, in these late days of late capitalism, at the beginning of (the rich Westerner bit of, anyway) the Fafocene, we are clinging to hope and the idea that social movement are bold entrepreneurs with power much as Linus clings to his security blanket in Peanuts – it’s a classic transitional object, rather like transition theory itself.

      To put it in blunt terms – nobody likes Debbie Downers, buzzkills. Nobody is happy if you piss on their chips if chips is all they have to eat. 

      For psychological, cognitive, social and financial reasons, hagiography is easier and safer.

      These documentaries are the equivalent of the stage-managed top down meeting where those in the cliques talk and preen but nothing gets achieved, and those came in the hope of getting information, opportunities for connection and action or all of the above slink out and are never seen again. 

      Bonus (skip if you like – fmdidgad)

      Why it wouldn’t matter even if we did get it

      Beyond the temporal factor – these documentaries usually appear too late anyway even to be “recruiting tools” – there are deeper problems. The streets have emptied

      “We” don’t have the absorptive capacity to take on new ideas, new numbers (of people who can’t get arrested, who can’t drop everything for The Cause).

      We are prisoners of our pasts – as the adage goes, past performance is the best indicator of past performance, and our past performance sucks; decades of failure

      There’s a (not very good) film adaptation of Graham Greene’s novel  “The Honorary Consul.” In it, there’s a prison breakout and someone who was held below ground for ages comes out, blinking in the harsh sun.  If he had legged it straight away, he might have avoided the guard’s bullets.  But he simply doesn’t have the capacity. He has been a prisoner too long and… You can tell I need to wrap this up, can’t you? I’ll do a post about the taxi-driver and me another day. Perhaps – it’s mostly about the efficacy of the duvet analogy, anyway.

      The Ways Forward (my heart isn’t in this)

      If civil society were going to get up on its hind legs it would have done so by now. I have used the line “the time to stamp on the brakes is before the bus goes off the cliff. Once it has you can stamp that pedal all you like, but it won’t change the outcome. And moving ripped up seat foam to the front in the hope of softening impact is fine to keep you busy, but, well, see above…

      However, I said there were be a “ways forward” bit. So here it is. But it’s based on some “ifs…”

      IF we had spaces where people could meet free from commercial and surveillance imperatives

      IF we had norms around the design and facilitation of meetings that were enforceable, and (collectively) enforced so that issues were properly and thoroughly aired, and the meetings not dominated by the most high status within the subculture, by the most confident etc…

      IF we had a universal basic income so more people had bandwidth to even have the time and energy to participate in civil society/social movements activity

      IF we had states (local, national) that were responsive to popular pressure in meaningful ways (NB Santa Claus model)

      IF we understood, collectively, the planet-wide catastrophes that are hoving into view as the consequences of a demented model of growth and a mismeasure of what is “sustainable”

      And

      IF we had giant machines that could cost-free suck billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and store them safely, bringing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide back to, say, 350ppm

      Well, in that case….

      I still don’t see how we can survive.

      Further reading I couldn’t be bothered to hyperlink within this above

      Extinction Rebellion says ‘we quit’ – why radical eco-activism has a short shelf life

      JSO – why are you trashing your brand for pennies?

      Just Stop Oil – anthropologically fascinating but politically terrifying | manchester climate monthly

      Dear ‘new’ #climate activist. Unsolicited advice, #oldfartclimateadvice

      Cher, incentive structures and our inevitable doom

      Has Extinction Rebellion got the right tactics? | New Internationalist

      From the book of Roger | manchester climate monthly  (This one I am quite fond of, proud of)

      Categories
      Academia Activism Australia

      Version 1 of submission to Australian Senate Inquiry into Climate Disinfo/Misinfo – comments pls

      Hi all, especially the Australians, and especially the Australians with experience of submitting documents to inquiries.

      The Senate Select Committee on Information Integrity on Climate Change and Energy was appointed by resolution of the Senate on 30 July 2025 and I have am planning to make a submission.

      I am putting Version 1.0 of my submission (word doc) up to

      a) get people’s feedback and improve (shorten!) the submission

      b) raise awareness of the Inquiry.

      It’s waaay too long, and the academic bibliography will I think have to come out. But what else is wrong with it? What is missing?

      The deadline is September 12th, so if you are reading this after September 8th (!), I won’t be able to integrate anything you say, but will still be interested.

      The terms of reference of the inquiry

      to inquire into and report on:

      (a) the prevalence of, motivations behind and impacts of misinformation and disinformation related to climate change and energy;

      (b) how misinformation and disinformation related to climate change and energy is financed, produced and disseminated, including, but not limited to, understanding its impact on:

      (i) Australian politics,

      (ii) domestic and international media narratives, and

      (iii) Australian public policy debate and outcomes;

      (c) the origins, growth and prevalence of ‘astroturfing’ and its impact on public policy and debate;

      (d) connections between Australian organisations and international think tank and influence networks associated with the dissemination of misinformation and disinformation related to matters of public policy;

      (e) the role of social media, including the coordinated use of bots and trolls, messaging apps and generative artificial intelligence in facilitating the spread of misinformation and disinformation;

      (f) the efficacy of different parliamentary and regulatory approaches in combating misinformation and disinformation, what evidence exists and where further research is required, including through gathering global evidence;

      (g) the role that could be played by media literacy education, including in the school curriculum, in combating misinformation and disinformation; and

      (h) any other related matters.

      Categories
      Academia Activism Australia Carbon Pricing Economics of mitigation

      August 5, 1997 – “Climate Change Policies in Australia” briefing

      Twenty eight years ago, on this day, August 5th, 1997 – Clive Hamilton, founder of the Australia Institute,

      “Climate Change Policies in Australia: A briefing to a meeting of the Ad Hoc Group on the Berlin Mandate”, Bonn, Germany, 5th August 1997

      The Government’s position has been bolstered by economic modelling analysis that purports to show that Australia would be especially hard hit. It is projected that wages in Australia will be 19% lower by 2020 under a scenario that reduces emissions by 10% below 1990 levels in 2020. It is also claimed that the economic cost for each Australian would be 22 times higher than for each European. These extraordinary claims have been challenged by many experts including 131 Australian academic economists who signed a statement declaring that policies are available to slow climate change without harming employment or living standards in Australia.
      It is also apparent that the modelling results have been presented in ways that are highly misleading. Despite the fact that the model is constructed in a way that exaggerates the impact of emissions reductions on the Australian economy, the results actually show that the impact would be extremely small.

      The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 363ppm. As of 2025, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.

      The broader context was that the UNFCCC had been agreed in 1992, but the text did NOT include targets and timetables for emissions reductions by rich countries. Why not? Because UNCLE SAM SAID SO THAT’S WHY NOT YOU PINKO TREE-HUGGER.

      (i.e. the people around George Bush Snr defeated the “pro-action” forces). So in 1995, the “Berlin Mandate” had been agreed – rich countries would have to come to the 3rd meeting in 1997, with plans/commitments to cut their emissions.

      The specific context was that the Australian government of Paul Keating had been deeply reluctant, and once there was a switch to John Howard, the anti-action work had turbocharged. This briefing came during a “charm” (sic) offensive by Howard’s people, trying to get a special deal for Australia. Clive Hamilton, who had set up the Australia Institute three years earlier, was not amused.

      What I think we can learn from this is that the Australian political and economic elite are, of course, criminally incompetent when it comes to a host of issues. But especially climate…

      What happened next – Howard succeeded in getting that extremely generous deal at Kyoto. Then STILL didn’t ratify it, on general (lack of) principle.

      What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

      Also on this day: 

      August 5, 1971 – First “South Pacific Forum” happens – All Our Yesterdays

      August 5, 1997 – Australian politician calls for “official figures” on #climate to be suspended because they are rubbery af

      August 5, 2010 – academics call for insurance industry to get involved in climate fight

      Categories
      Academia

      The Fafocene

      The Fafocene. You may not know it, but you are living in it.  

      [Update – see also “Affect and the Fafocene: kayfabe, hypernormalisation and Leonard Cohen”.]

      The last 12 thousand or so years, since the end of the last ice age, have been not too cold, not too warm, and we ended up with agriculture, industry and all the nice things. This period has been dubbed the Holocene.

      (Check out interview with David Pope here)

      More recently, various types of scientists have pointed out that our agriculture, industry and all the nice things have gotten so big that human activity has started to actually shape (and shake)  the entire planet – which is pretty wild, when you think about it. This period has been dubbed the Anthropocene.

      The term is controversial, because peoples on the pointy end of the agriculture, industry etc are keen to point out that the responsibility for the damage done in/by the Anthropocene is #NotAllHumans, and they propose alternatives like Capitalocene, Plantationocene and Chthulucene (I am not making this up). As the Australian band the Hoodoo Gurus used to sing “What’s my cene?

      Well, recently (April 2025, it seems) somebody came up with Fafocene, which I think mostly closes down the debate.

      More specifically, this

      FAFO, for those of you who have been living on Mars (don’t tell Elon, it will spoil his whole day), stands for Fuck Around and Find Out – meaning first there are actions, and then there are consequences  (Check out Jim Croce’s song Leroy Brown).

      So you get diagrams like this

      Now, of course, climate change is represented by the Keeling Curve 

      Also, check out my tattoo!

      or rather, the carbon dioxide build-up part is represented by the Keeling Curve. Methane is another story.   And more broadly, the Anthropocene is (much) more than “merely” boiling ourselves alive – check out all those graphs in The Great Acceleration.

      But for now, Fafocene does the job (although we should always remember that other animals we ‘share’ this planet with have been living (and then not living) in the Fafocene for a long time, and that it is indeed #NotAllHumans….

      Update May 25 2025 – have just been alerted to this fantastic article, which went up on Thursday 22nd…

      Categories
      Academia United States of America

      May 2, 1989 – a DC forum about “Our Common Future”

      Thirty six years ago, on this day, May 2nd, 1989, a bunch of people got together to think about The Future (turns out it is murder),

      Global change and our common future papers from a forum. 

      DeFries, Ruth S .; Malone, Thomas F. National Research Council (U.S.), Committee on Global Change Forum on Global Change and Our Common Future 1989 Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press; 1989. xiii, 227 p. : ill., maps ; 28 cm. Committee on Global Change, National Research Council. 

      Proceedings of the Forum on Global Change and Our Common Future, held on May 2-3, 1989, at the National Theatre in Washington, D.C., and organized by the National Research Council’s Committee on Global Change. Includes bibliographical references.

      The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 353ppm. As of 2025 it is 430ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

      The context was that the “Our Common Future” report had been released in 1987. It was a sequel/rehash of sorts of the Brandt report of 1980, and sat alongside the Global 2000 report. All these – whisper it – were dancing around the fact that the Limits to Growth people of 1972 were basically right but nobody wanted to admit it so everyone went along with the bright shining lies about Technology or Development or Human Rights or whatever protective incantations were popular and career-enhancing at that moment.

      What I think we can learn from this. We were smart enough to spot the problems. Mostly too scared (with good reason) to point out that the maniac sociopaths in charge would never allow the actions required, because it would interfere with their power, prestige, appetites, ideology. Duck and cover? Kinda.

      What happened next

      In 1989 the Global Climate Coalition was formed – oil companies and auto companies and so on – to fight any meaningful policy response to climate change. They won.

      What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

      References

      Xxx

      Also on this day: 

      May 2, 1990 – Nairobi Declaration on Climatic Change – All Our Yesterdays

      May 2, 2009 – Australian Liberals warned of wipe-out if seen as “anti-climate action” #auspol

      May 2, 2012 – CCS is gonna save us all. Oh yes.

      May 2, 2019 – Committee on Climate change report on net zero by 2050

      Categories
      Academia United States of America

      May 1, 1972 – Walter Orr Roberts and the need for black climate scientists

      Fifty three years ago, on this day, May 1st, 1972, the National Center for Atmospheric Research director Walter Orr Roberts writes a letter about the importance of training black climate scientists https://opensky.ucar.edu/islandora/object/archives:7508

      The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 327ppm. As of 2025 it is 430ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

      The context was the ferment of the 1960s (i.e. the hard dangerous work of civil rights activists and the hand-wringing of the liberals) was ramifying through the institutions. Here we see Orr Roberts, by all accounts a decent man, trying to carve out some space.

      What I think we can learn from this. Institutional racism is a thing. Individuals try to ameliorate it, but you need a system to change a system…

      What happened next. The 60s ended in the late 1970s, with exhaustion, repression, and the beginnings of a successful “fightback” (that never ended, but was on the back foot for a bit). By 1981 it was “Morning in America” again…

      There’s plenty of books about elements of this – I should make a list I guess.

      What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

      References

      Xxx

      Also on this day: 

      May 1, 1971 – May Day anti-war actions in Washington DC – All Our Yesterdays

      May 1, 1980 – ABC talks about atmospheric carbon dioxide measurement

      May 1, 1981 – scorching editorial about Energy and Climate received at Climatic Change – All Our Yesterdays

      May 1, 1996 – US Congressman says climate research money is “money down a rat hole