Category: Science

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Science Scientists United States of America

October 12, 1976 – Jule Charney throws (private) shade on fellow climatologists…

On this day, October 12 in 1976, an eminent US scientist was dismissive (in a personal letter) of Stephen Schneider et al.

12 Oct 1976 None of the “speculative ideas of people like … Schneider on future climate change are worth the paper (usually newspaper) they are written on. They mislead the public and they do the field harm,” Charney concluded in a separate letter.

Jule  Charney to Warren Kornberg, 12 October 1976, Box 13 – NSF, 1955-81, Papers of Jule Charney,  MIT Institute Archives, Cambridge, MA. 

(Henderson, 2014 Dilemmas of Reticence)

[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 328.72ppm. At time of writing it was 421ishppm- but for what it is now,well, see here for the latest.]

The context was this – 

In the mid 1970s there was a flurry of books about climate change and its impacts. Only a very few of them focussed on the importance of carbon dioxide build-up – others saw the problem in dust, or ‘waste heat’. The grand old men of the field – Charney, Landsberg et al, feared that popularisation/tabloid style claims would damage the credibility of the field. 

Why this matters. 

Scientists – justifiably – worry about large claims and whether they are sound, since if the claims and predictions turn out to be wrong, all scientists suffer.

What happened next?

Charney changed his tune in 1979, agreeing that unless something very odd indeed happened, then a doubling of atmospheric CO2 would lead to serious warming…

Schneider went on to do much more great work.

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Ignored Warnings Ireland Science Scientists

October 9, 1979 – Hermann Flohn warns Irish of “possible consequences of a man-made warming”

On this day, October 9 in 1979, Hermann Flohn (major German scientist) gave a talk about “possible climatic consequences of a man-made global warming” at a conference in Dublin, Ireland.

Flohn H. 1980: Possible climatic consequences of a man-made global warming. In: R. Kavanagh (Ed.): Energy System Analysis. Proc. Intern. Conf. Dublin, 9-11 Oct. 1979, D. Reidel Publ. Comp., Dordrecht, 558-568. (1981: Life on a warmer Earth, Possible climatic consequences of man-made global warming. Executive Report 3, based on research by H. Flohn, Intern. Inst. for Applied System Analysis IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, pp. 59.)

https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/1097/1/WP-79-086.pdf

[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 334.24ppm. At time of writing it was 421ishppm- but for what it is now,well, see here for the latest.]

The context was this – by the late 1970s, scientists who studied climate, energy systems etc had come to some conclusions

  1. Carbon dioxide really was building up in the atmosphere
  2. This would have real consequences 

They tried to get politicians to pay attention.  Oops

Why this matters. 

By the late 1970s we knew enough (earlier than that, I think there was room for doubt)

What happened next?

Flohn kept trying. Others kept trying. Eventually, in 1988, the issue “broke through”.

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Germany Science

October 2, 1942 – Spaceflight!!

On this day, October 2 in 1942 – Spaceflight: The first successful launch of a V-2 /A4-rocket from Test Stand VII at Peenemünde, Germany. It is the first man-made object to reach space. 

[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 311ppm. At time of writing it was 421ishppm- but for what it is now,well, see here for the latest.]

The context was this – the war!!  And there is nothing like a war to get the state to fund research and development and deployment of novel technologies…. If only we’d put such determination into not wiping ourselves out. Oh well, so it goes.

Why this matters. 

Being able to put objects in space (including meatsacks, I guess) made studying the world’s climates and systems “doable”.  See “The Vast Machine” by Paul Edwards…

https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/vast-machine

What happened next?

After the war the Soviets and Americans tussled over who got which Nazis and technology. Operation Paperclip and all that.

And you know

“Once the rockets are up

Who cares where they come down?

That’s not my department

Says Wernher von Braun”…

See also – Gravity’s Rainbow by Thomas Pynchon.

And V2 by Robert Harris

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Science

October 2, 1927/64 – Svante Arrhenius and Guy Callendar die.

On this day, October 2nd 1927, Swedish scientist and Nobel Prize winner Svante Arrhenius died.

The guy who did the back of envelope calculations (big envelope, it took him a year).  

The atmospheric c02 level was 305ppm. It is now about 421ppm.

See also “Megascience” thing from Ambio

From Arrhenius to megascience: interplay between science and public decision making https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/4314553.pdf

By coincidence, exactly 37 years later, British scientists and engineer Guy Callendar died. (See here).

On Callendar, James Fleming has done excellent work (link).

[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 316.87ppm. At time of writing it was 421ish ppm – but for what it is now,well, see here for the latest.]

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Science United States of America

October 1, 1957 – US Oil company ponders carbon dioxide build-up…

On this day, October 1 1957, a US Oil Company ponders carbon dioxide build-up in the atmosphere. 

1 October 1957 Humble Oil study – Radiocarbon evidence on the dilution of atmospheric and oceanic carbon by carbon from fossil fuels. H. R. Brannon Jr.  A. C. Daughtry  D. Perry  W. W. Whitaker  M. Williams

First published: October 1957 https://doi.org/10.1029/TR038i005p00643

[The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 315.6 or thereabout ppm. At time of writing it was 421ish ppm – but for what it is now,well, see here for the latest.]

The context was this – by the early 1950s, various folks were beginning to take note of carbon dioxide as a potential issue. (See for example, Gilbert Plass). Accurate atmospheric measures were not yet, however, being taken.

As Ben Franta noted in his 2018 article –  

“In 1954, the geochemist Harrison Brown and his colleagues at the California Institute of Technology submitted a research proposal to the API entitled “The determination of the variations and causes of variations of the isotopic composition of carbon in nature.” The scientists proposed the use of new mass spectrometers to investigate the ratio of carbon-12 to carbon-13 in terrestrial, marine and mineral systems to understand geological and biological carbon cycling”

Source.- Franta 2018.

Why this matters. 

Even with International Geophysical Year barely being underway, we knew enough to plant a big fat warning flag in the ground and say “we really need to think about this one.”. The oil companies certainly did…

What happened next?

Awareness of the potential climate impacts of carbon dioxide build-up grew and grew through the 60s, into the 70s and 80s. There was a thirty year history of scientists saying “er, look” before 1988, when the issue broke through into the public sphere.

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Australia Science Scientists

September 16, 1969 – Nobel-prize winning Australian scientist warns about carbon dioxide build-up. Yes, 1969

On this day September 16 1969, Sir Macfarlane Burnet, an extremely eminent Australian scientist pointed to carbon dioxide as a serious potential problem. Yes, 1969.

Call to keep world at 2,000m

MELBOURNE, Monday. — The world population should be adjusted and maintained at perhaps 2,000 million, distinguished scientist Sir Macfarlane Burnet said today.

It was one of five minimum requirements that he set down for a “stable human eco-system” or an harmonious world.

Sir Macfarlane was delivering a paper at the Felton Bequests Symposium at the Royal Australasian College of Surgeons in Melbourne.

Sir Macfarlane said the other requirements included a stabilisation of the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to avoid the possibility of disastrous climatic change.

The theme of the symposium was the influence of scientific advances on the future of mankind. It was arranged by the Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research in honour of Sir Macfarlane’s 70th birthday.

Anon, 1969. Call to keep world at 2000m. Canberra Times, 16 September, p.3.

On this day the PPM was 323 ish. Now it is 420ish- but see here for the latest.

The context is that by the late 1960s smart people were paying attention to – and starting to get worried about – carbon dioxide build-up. Burnet was not alone in this.

Why this matters.

Let no-one tell you this was a sudden surprise in 1988 (and even if it were, we’ve had a generation to start taking action).

What happened next?

More and more people became aware of the problems.  But awareness is not political and economic power, and those who were doing nicely from the sale of deliciously cheap and abundant fossil fuels saw no reason to stop. And every reason to stop those who wanted them to stop. So that’s what they did, very well, for a very long time. Eternity, effectively.

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Australia Ignored Warnings Science Scientists

September 15, 1980 – Australian scientists hold “Carbon Dioxide and Climate” symposium in Canberra

On this day, 15 September 1980, Australian scientists met in Canberra to discuss carbon dioxide and its build-up…

1980, 15 to 17 September, Carbon Dioxide and Climate – Australian Academy of Science symposium in Canberra

“In 1980, the Australian Academy of Science held a conference to review 20 years of measurements showing increasing carbon-dioxide levels, and by then there was an understanding that the greenhouse effect would result in climate change.”

Staples, J. 2009 page 2

And it got reported in the Canberra Times….

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Science United States of America

August 23, 1856 –  Eunice Foote identifies carbon dioxide as greenhouse gas

On this day in 1856 American scientist and women’s rights campaigner Eunice Foote illustrated her findings in a paper entitled, “Circumstances affecting the heat of the sun’s rays,” which was accepted at the eighth annual American Association for the Advancement of Science meeting on August 23, 1856 in Albany, NY. Back in the day, what we now call carbon dioxide was known as carbonic acid…

See Alice Bell’s “Our Biggest Experiment” for more about Foote, and also the wikipedia entry linked to above…

On this day the atmospheric carbon dioxide was 285 ppm (see here).  Now it is 420ish- but see here for the latest.

As David Morrow usefully notes

“You can read more about the significance of Foote’s research in Raymond Sorenson’s 2011 article on Foote’s research and his 2018 addendum to it, as well as in Leila McNeill’s 2016 article on Foote’s discovery in Smithsonian Magazine.”

Why this matters. 

An interesting foote-note? (sorry, it was there, had to use it). Good for thinking with around (lack of) opportunities for women/amateurs.

What happened next?

John Tyndall wrote about this a few years later. Had he seen Foote’s work? We will never know. Maybe. Probably.

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Science Scientists

August 8, 1975 – first academic paper to use term “global warming” published

On this day, August 8 1975 the first academic paper to use the term “global warming” was published

“Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?”, Wallace S. Broecker, Science, 8 August 1975

Apparently Wally Broecker didn’t like having been the first and offered 200 bucks to anyone who could find an earlier instance.

Broecker, who has appeared on this site here in connection to an April 1980 letter he wrote to Democratic Senator Paul Tsongas, was a mensch.

On this day the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration was 329.95 ppm. It is now 421ish,  but see here for the latest.

Why this matters. 

Articles like this helped people understand what was going on. By the late 1970s, we knew enough.

What happened next?

Broecker, and others, kept at it. It’s not the scientists who are to blame, imo. Oh well.

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Ignored Warnings Science Scientists United States of America

August 3, 1970 – Nixon warned about climate change and icecaps melting

On this day, 3 August 1970, the first report of the Council on Environmental Quality was delivered to Preside Nixon. It contained a chapter on inadvertent weather modification, carbon dioxide build-up and icecaps melting. 

The CEQ had been set up as part of the legislative process that had gathered momentum under Johnson and come to fruition by late 1969.  

On this day the PPM was 324.69ppm

Now it is 421ish- but see here for the latest.

Why this matters. 

By early 1970s, folks were going “you know, this really might become a problem.”  By the mid-late 1970s the smarter ones dropped the “might”…

What happened next?

The CEQ didn’t return to the climate issue until Carter, best I can tell. And then Gus Speth, as its boss, got cracking with getting things moving, having been nudged by Gordon MacDonald and Rafe Pomerance of Friends of the Earth.

Gordon MacDonald had already been writing about this stuff (see his chapter in the Nigel Calder book). He would go on to be important in the fight against synfuels.