Category: Scientists

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Denial Scientists

October 22, 1991 – Denialist says “no more than 1 degree of warming by end of 21st century”. Turd.

Thirty three years ago, on this day, October 22nd 1991, the Cold Warrior physicist William Nierenberg, in the grip of Relevance Deprivation Syndrome and loving being part of the “George Marshall Institute” which he had co-founded, tells attendees of the World Petroleum Congress in Buenos Aires, Argentina that there will be 

 no more than 1 degree of warming by the end of 21st century.

See Oreskes and Conway Merchants of Doubt page 189 (they say 1992, but I am fairly sure they’re wrong). See also Bolin 2007, page 72.

[from a chapter of Merchants of Doubt available here].

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 356ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that the climate denialists were in full throat, trying to dampen enthusiasm for a climate treaty. The negotiations for this were going nowhere, but you never knew. So one way to seem “reasonable” was to say that if there was going to be any warming, it would be very, very mild. Nirenberg had been a lead author on the 1983 report by the National Academies of Science which had come out two days after the Environmental Protection Agency’s report, “Can We Delay a Greenhouse Warming?” The EPA report stands up. Nirenberg et al’s? It has aged like a glass of milk. 

Nirenberg was a tool and his prediction of “no more than one degree Celsius of warming by the end of the 21st century” is laughable and contemptible. And as a silly old man, he should have shown a bit of humility.

What I think we can learn from this is that there is such a thing as Relevance Deprivation Syndrome and that those of high status suffer the most from it.

What happened next I think Nirenberg kept being a denialist asshole till he died. Because God forbid that you admit that you were wrong. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

See also

WORLD PETROLEUM CONGRESS 1991
Source: Energy Exploration & Exploitation , 1991, Vol. 9, No. 6 (1991), pp. 344-353 Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/43753814

Also on this day: 

October 22, 1969 – Edmund Muskie mentions CO2 build up 

October 22, 1997 – US and Australian enemies of #climate action plot and gloat

Categories
Science Scientists United Kingdom

October 8, 1958 – “CO2 has begun to come home, hasn’t it?”

Sixty-six years ago today (October 8th, 1958) British meteorologist Gordon Manley wrote to his friend, steam engineer Guy Callendar, who had – for the past twenty-plus years had been banging on about carbon dioxide building up in the atmosphere as a (or even the) factor affecting the climate.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 315ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that the International Geophysical Year was happening. More people were coming on board with the carbon dioxide theory, Gilbert Plass, GER Deakin, Appleton, etc. And Manley was congratulating Guy Callendar bless. 

What we learn is that Guy Callendar was getting a little bit of recognition and was getting published still in journals like Tellus and so forth. But he wasn’t being carried through the streets on people’s shoulders, as perhaps he should have been. Such is the nature of humanity when the wrong person making the announcement, if you’re Miss Triggs. 

What we learn is that you can be right and not get the credit you deserve. That’s one of the oldest stories in the book. 

What happened next Callendar had a couple of more really astute observations in him about, for example, why theories aren’t popular, and so forth. And he died in 1964, 37 years to the day after Svante Arrhenius died. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

References

CP 1, Gordon Manley to Callendar, 8 October 1958, cited in Fleming, 2007

Also on this day: 

October 8, 1959 – Shell says “nothing to see here” on carbon dioxide build-up

October 8, 1971 – Lord Kennet pushes back against Nature’s “John Maddox” on the greenhouse effect.

October 8, 1978 – The Times runs an “ice caps melting” story

October 8, 1988 – Aussie poet and activist Judith Wright in final speech, warns of environmental problems ahead…

Categories
Science Scientists United States of America

September 20, 1848 – the AAAS is born…

One hundred and seventy six years ago, on this day, September 20th, 1848,

1848 – The American Association for the Advancement of Science is created.

The American Association for the Advancement of Science was created on September 20, 1848, at the Academy of Natural Sciences in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. It was a reformation of the Association of American Geologists and Naturalists with the broadened mission to be the first permanent organization to promote science and engineering nationally and to represent the interests of American researchers from across all scientific fields

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 275ishppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that science was coming along in leaps and bounds, even in the United States of America. You can read the Wikipedia page about it here.

What we learn is that putting together these sorts of bodies is a tremendous amount of hard work, clever politicking. You have to scramble for funds. You’ve got to allay the concerns of people who feel that a bureaucracy has been created or that their own baileywick is being stomped on. And the benefits are not always self-evident, and it could go badly wrong. See that Machiavelli quote about innovation. But anyway, it happened. Its journal Science started to be published in 1880.

What happened next? AAAS was a crucial node in science as you’d hope it would be obviously distinct from the National Academies of Science and the American Meteorological Society and the National Research Council and all the rest of it though there is inevitably circulation of staff and ideas and people 

In the 100th year of the AAAS as the English biologist G Evelyn Hutchinson mentioned CO2 build up at a seminar organised by the within the AAAS General Meeting.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

September 20, 1893 – first American-made gasoline-powered car hits the road.

September 20, 2013 – CCS project mothballed/killed.

Categories
Australia Scientists

September 19 1969 – ABC Radio warns listeners about carbon dioxide

Fifty five years ago, on this day, September 19th, 1969, ABC Radio has the following programme, starring Professor Frank Fenner… Scroll down to the bold bit…

title:A MAN & HIS SCIENCE, 3

Subject Person: MACFARLANE BURNET, CHAIRMAN THE COMMONWEALTH FOUNDATION 1966-69, PRESIDENT AUSTRALIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCE 1965-69

Description:

TALK BY PROFESSOR FRANK FENNER ON SIR MACFARLANE BURNET – HIS CONCERNS.

Descriptive Log:

00:00:00, Log, JOHN CHALLIS: FENNER WORKED FOR SOME YEARS WITH BURNET AND CURRENTLY BOTH ARE DEEPLY CONCERNED WITH ECOLOGY. PARTICULARLY THE WAY CHANGES IN THE ENVIRONMENT AFFECT LIVING SPECIES. DRAWS URGENT ATTENTION TO POSSIBILITY OF MODERN TECHNOLOGY COMPLETELY DESTROYING MAN’S NATURAL ENVIRONMENT.

PROFESSOR FRANK FENNER: WITH DEVELOPMENT OF AGRICULTURE 10,000 YEARS AGO MAN INITIATED PROGRESSIVE AND INESCAPABLE CHANGES IN ECOSYSTEMS. IMPACT BECAME DRAMATIC WHEN MAN TECHNICISED. NUMBERS AND DEMANDS INCREASED. ENERGY USAGE, PRODUCTS OF CHEMICAL TECHNOLOGY. APART FROM POSSIBLE EFFECTS ON HUMAN HEALTH, CHEMICAL PRODUCTS HAD REPERCUSSIONS BEYOND THE ECOSYSTEM TO WHICH THEY WERE APPLIED.

EXPERIENCE WITH IONISING RADIATION AND CIGARETTE SMOKING MADE IT CLEAR THAT MANY EFFECTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION VERY SLOW IN DEVELOPING, SO DIFFICULT TO ESTABLISH LINKS BETWEEN CAUSE AND EFFECT.

INCREASING COMBUSTION OF FOSSIL FUELS MEANS ADDING MORE CARBON DIOXIDE TO THE ATMOSPHERE FASTER THAN OCEANS CAN ASSIMILATE IT. POSSIBILITY OF MELTING POLAR ICECAP OR CREATING ICE AGE.

WAYS AUSTRALIA POLLUTING ENVIRONMENT. VULNERABLE TO EFFECTS OF LARGE NUMBER OF PEOPLE BECAUSE THE DRIEST CONTINENT, NATURAL RESOURCES LIMITED, AND CLIMATE LESS DEPENDABLE THAN AMERICA’S, BUT STILL SUFFICIENTLY EMPTY TO PLAN IF PERSONAL GREED AND SOCIAL APATHY DON’T CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR LAWMAKERS. CRITICAL REAPPRAISAL OF ‘GROWTH’ MYTH NEEDED. MINERAL RESOURCES OF AUSTRALIA.

SCIENCE ALONE CAN’T SOLVE PROBLEMS IT HAS LARGELY CREATED. UNLESS THE RIGHT STEPS ARE TAKEN QUICKLY MAN ON EARTH HAS TO FACE A FUTURE OF INCREASING MISERY.

Depicts Person:

FRANK FENNER, PROFESSOR, DIRECTOR JOHN CURTIN SCHOOL OF MEDICAL RESEARCH, ANU 1967-1973

JOHN CHALLIS, ABC EXECUTIVE PRODUCER SCIENCE UNIT

Miscellaneous:

RECORDED AT THE MACFARLANE BURNET BIRTHDAY SYMPOSIUM.

BROADCAST 19.10.1969 AT 10.45am ON 2nd NETWORK

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 324ppm. As of 2024 it is 422ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that MacFarlane Burnett had already been talking about this to an Australian Conservation Foundation seminar in Melbourne. (This is back when ACF was still very much an establishment outfit.) And so we have ABC radio talking about CO2 buildup as well. This is a good five years before the Science Show’s first episode where Richie Calderr talked about it. This is a year after the BBC Radio 4 people whatever it was called, in 1968 were talking about it as per Ritchie Calder and his the UNESCO sponsored series “Science Peace and Survival”.

What we learn is that by the late 60s (and certainly by ‘68). people knew that this was a possible long term threat. You didn’t have to be a genius. You didn’t even have to have paid a lot of attention to it. The Senate Air Pollution committee, Harry Bloom nine months earlier had told them where things were going.

What happened next? There was the two to three year period of everyone freaking out about all forms of pollution (including climate change caused by carbon dioxide build-up) and then gone away because people can only bear so much reality. And also, the oil shock.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

September 19, 1997 – John Howard condemns the South Pacific to hell. Again.

September 19, 1998 – Public Health Association calls for “life-saving green taxes”

Categories
Science Scientists Sea level rise United States of America

September 13, 1984 – unsettling Seattle workshop on sea level rise

Forty years ago, on this day, September 13th, 1984

Glaciers, ice sheets and sea level : effect of a CO2-induced climatic change : report of a workshop held in Seattle, Washington, September 13-15, 1984

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 345ppm. As of 2024 it is 420ishppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that by now, CO2 build-up and its close cousin sea level rise were well embedded in environmental science in the United States. The EPA, the year before, had produced a big fat report. And this workshop, I guess it’s a continuation of that. 

What we learn is that our scientists have been warning us about sea level rise with graphs and numbers since the early 1980s. And without necessarily all those graphs and numbers since the 1950s. 

What happened next, scientists kept sciencing and the rapid increase in temperature and warmth of the planet led in 1988 to James Hansen giving his famous testimony to the Senate committee in June of 1988.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

September 13, 1976 – US news broadcast on ozone and climate.

September 13, 1992/1994- Scientists traduced, ignored

Categories
Scientists

August 20, 1988 – Hansen’s model released

Thirty six years ago, on this day, August 20th, 1988,

The most comprehensive greenhouse model to date was prepared by Hansen at the Goddard Institute and published in the August 20, 1988, issue of Journal of Geophysical Research. Hansen’s model predicts an increase of from two to five degrees Fahrenheit in the next thirty years, depending on which of three alternate futures the world’s nations choose: continued expansion of fossil fuel use at the current annual rate of 1.5 percent; a moderate cut-back; or a radical shift away from fossil fuels to alternate sources of energy, such as solar, nuclear, wind, or hydroelectric. https://www.spin.com/2019/09/greenhouse-effect-climate-crisis/

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 351ppm. As of 2024 it is 424ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that everyone was banging on about climate. Now greenhouse, which was not the case when this model had been worked on two months earlier. US climate scientist James Hansen had given his bombshell testimony. This was the first published version of the climate models that he was talking about. 

What we learn is that Hansen has been ahead of the game for a long time and  probably should not be ignored. 

What happened next, Hansen got attacked, the models got attacked. The Global Climate Coalition came along, the George C Marshall Institute pivoted from shilling Reagan’s Star Wars to this crap. And here we are.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

August 20, 1997 – Australian Mining Industry operative misrepresents the #climate science. Obvs.

August 20, 2018 – Greta Thunberg’s first protest

Categories
Science Scientists Sweden

August 10, 1974 – Stockholm conference on climate modelling ends

Fifty years ago, on this day, August 10th, 1974, the pivotal Stockholm conference on climate modelling, (29 July to 10 August) ended.

For more about this conference, see here.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 330ppm. As of 2024 it is 424ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that after the 1972 Stockholm Environmental Conference the United Nations Environment Program had been set up, and there was money and interest sloshing around for computer modelling of climate. It was fairly crude by today’s standards, but, you know, baby steps. There was Bolin, Flohn and the others. And presumably, Olof Palme was being kept informed. Flohn certainly briefed Palme at some point. I think that year 

What we learn is that the scientific understanding of the build up of the consequences of the buildup of CO2 came along in leaps and bounds in the 70s. They’re only a couple of years away from “yellow danger light” as per Thomas Malone in July of 1977. Of course, the old beasts – Landsberg Charney and John Mason, were pooh poohing it all together. And Reid Bryson was angry that his dust theory was going tits up. But it was real, the emerging carbon consensus. That’s what we learned. 

What happened next. A meeting in Norwich the following year put the death to the cooling idea. The Energy and Climate report of the National Academy of Sciences came out in 1977. And then, of course, the First World Climate conference in 1979. And that’s the end really, of there being serious debate about the CO2 problem.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

August 10, 1980 – “Energy, Climate and the Future” seminar in Melbourne

August 10, 2003 – a UK temperature record tumbles…

Categories
Academia Scientists

August 9, 1955 – Canadian physicist Gilbert Plass submits his paper

Sixty nine years ago, on this day, August 9th, 1955, Gilbert Plass submits a paper… You can read it here.

(Manuscript received August 9 1955

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 314ppm. As of 2024 it is 424ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that Plass had been talking, researching, writing about CO2 buildup for a while. He made public statements in May of 1953 [see my Conversation article], at the American Geophysical Union that went viral. And here he was submitting an article to Tellus, a Swedish academic journal. (Tellus was the watering hole for atmospheric physics those people at that time.) 

What we learn is that smart people could see what was happening. 

What happened next. Plass wrote that paper. He wrote another paper, I think, in 1959. And he also had an article in Scientific American in 1959. That, btw, was advertised in the Observer.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

August 9, 2001 – OECD calls on Australia to introduce a carbon tax. Told to… go away…

August 9, 2013 – BP writes the rules (de facto)

Categories
Science Scientists Sweden

June 6, 1988 – Scientists say we are entering a new phase

Thirty six years ago, on this day, June 6th, 1988 there is a well-publicised warning by scientists in Stockholm (Bolin etc) releasing study.

We are entering a new phase….

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 351ppm. As of 2024 it is 426ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that ever since the pivotal meeting in Villach, in September 1985, scientists had been trying to raise the alarm – briefing senators, writing reports etc etc.

What we learn is that James Hansen’s testimony, on June 23 1988, did not appear in a vacuum. The terrain was being prepared by many others.

What happened next was that Hansen’s testimony – and the Changing Atmosphere meeting in Toronto the week after, at the end of June – set the ball rolling. 

The emissions have kept climbing, of course. As have the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. And here we are.

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

Also on this day: 

June 6, 1977 – German scientist Hermann Flohn asks “Whither the Atmosphere and the Earth’s climate?”

June 6, 1978 – Exxon presentation about carbon dioxide build-up

Categories
Scientists United Kingdom United States of America

May 13, 1957 – Guy Callendar to Gilbert Plass on how easy it is to criticise, how hard to build theories

Sixty seven years ago, on this day, May 13th, 1957, English steam engineer Guy Callendar, who had been pointing to carbon dioxide build-up as an explanation for increased global temperatures since the late 1930s, wrote to Gilbert Plass, who in 1953 had brought the problem to global attention (see my Conversation piece here).

How easy it is to criticise and how difficult to produce constructive theories of climate change! and ““A point of special interest is the large discrepancies between the apparent increase of atmospheric CO2 given by the air-CO2 observations . . . and the predicted increase derived from the size of the exchange reservoirs as now revealed by radio carbon measurements.”

Letter from Callendar to Plass 13 May 1957 (Fleming, 2007: chapter 5)
Guy Callendar

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 315ppm. As of 2024 it is 425ppm, but check here for daily measures. 

The context was that Guy Callendar had been banging on about climate change and carbon dioxide buildup since 1938. And Plass had been doing the same since 1953. The two were corresponding and Callendar made a very good point about how the more conventional/mainstream/whatever people were resentful of an outsider committing that terrible crime of being right and proving the experts to be wrong. 

What we learn is that sometimes the experts are wrong. Other times they’re right but sometimes they are wrong. Don’t expect them to applaud you. 

What happened next Callendar had another great piece in 1960 – see here. He died in 1964. Plass kept writing about climate for a few more years but eventually moved on to other things. And the emissions kept climbing. 

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.

References

Fleming, J. 2009 The Callendar Effect – The Life and Times of Guy Stewart Callendar (1898–1964), The Scientist Who Established the Carbon Dioxide Theory of: The Life … of Climate Change

Also on this day: 

May 13, 1983 – idiots get their retaliation in first…

May 13, 1991 – UK Energy minister fanboys nuclear as climate solution. Obvs.

May 13, 1992 – Australian business predicts economic armageddon if any greenhouse gas cuts made