“A weekly summary of advances in knowledge of the El Nino 2026-7, and of its social, political and economic impacts.” (*)
Welcome to the first of many (several?) weekly issues of the “Some Of Our Tomorrows” digest, an off-shoot of the “All Our Yesterdays” project. The “why” should be self-explanatory, but here’s a FAQ anyway.
Here’s the database I’ve begun (but almost certainly will not maintain). It’s largely based on a Google Alert for “El Nino” and Impacts. Plus things people send me.
To precisely nobody’s surprise –
“Data from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), released on September 14, 2026, shows El Nino has breached the temperature rise threshold of 2C (3.6F), thus becoming “very strong”, informally known as a super El Nino.”
(Ali and Haddad, 2026; Al Jazeera’s primer is really good).
Physical impacts
To paraphrase Aristotle “Anybody can become terrified— that is easy, but to be terrified about the right horrorshow and to the right degree and at the right time and for the right purpose, and in the right way — that is not within everybody’s power and is not easy.”
Water – (sea temperatures etc)
Heavier rain to East Africa, South America and the southern US.
Bruno, et al. 2026. Marine ecosystems in peril: Time to prepare for super El Niño. PNAS doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2623156123
Luhn, A. 2026. Scientists call for ‘emergency’ measures to save sea life from El Niño. New Scientist, September 14 (paywalled)
Earth
Dinnen, J. 2026. The super El Niño is already wreaking havoc: here’s what’s in store. Nature, Sept 13 doi.org/10.1038/d41586-026-02826-5
Fire
Money
(always the fifth element, whatever Aristotle had to say)
Anon, 2026. Major bank warns El Niño impact could slow GDP growth. RNZ, September 14
Political/Economic “etc” impacts
Asia
This one is a banger from the Guardian.
There’s an excellent interview with Rachel Tolhurst, professor in international public health at Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine. Tl;dr – poor people are gonna get hit hardest.
The Government of Saint Andy “I’m not telling you about Rosebank and Jackdaw until after the Holborn by-election” Burnham is talking up its efforts. Don’t mention the aid budget cuts – the money for bus fare decreases had to come from somewhere.
UK (yes, we’re that parochial)
Remember we’ve been told to stock up on food and water.
Met Office (Sep 11) – What does the latest long-range forecast tell us and what role could El Niño play this autumn? – My paraphrase – we don’t know yet, but a) “batten down the hatches” and b) “don’t be surprised if there are some surprises.”
HMG, 2026. Impacts of El Niño on the UK. Government Office of Science, September 17
Food
Energy
“Unsurprisingly, Europeans are keeping a keen eye on the weather, and in particular this year’s super El Niño phenomenon. The currents and climate pattern, which sees sea surface temperatures rising particularly in the tropical Pacific Ocean, is generally associated with warmer temperatures, at least in the earlier phases of autumn and winter.
“On the other hand, the second half of an El Niño winter has been known to be cold and snowy.
“More broadly, sniffing the air and feeling one’s joints is a poor substitute for an energy plan: banking on the weather, as Britons know all too well, is a losing strategy.”
Palladino, C. 2026. Will El Niño be the saviour of Europe’s energy market? Financial Times, September 18
https://www.ft.com/content/19309369-2741-4caf-91f9-a45505f82148
Videos
15 minutes from the Met, September 4 2026
Quote of the Week
“We can’t just assume that this El Niño is going to be the same as the last because there are so many challenges that have been stacking on top of each other.”
“We have come to a stage where climate change is putting so much pressure on us – on our existing, already crumbling or structurally unsound, systems…. Nature will force us to have a reckoning.”
Elyssa Kaur Ludher, a climate and food security expert based in Singapore.
Holmes et al, 2026. ‘Forcing a reckoning’: How Asia is preparing for a ‘supersized’ El Niño. The Guardian, September 18
Bowel-loosening factoid/prediction of the Week
“For 100 consecutive days between June 2 and Sept. 10, the global ocean outside of polar regions sustained record high average sea surface temperatures, according to data from the Climate Reanalyzer, a platform overseen by the University of Maine’s Climate Change Institute in the U.S.”
Alberts, E.C. 2026. Global ocean breaks records with 100 days of heat as El Niño adds new threat. Mongabay. September 18
Stuff to watch for in the next week
Don’t know.
Editorial (brief, optional)
So, thoughts and suggestions welcome, obvs. I will definitely do this to the end of October. Beyond that, don’t know yet.
Links and Disclaimers
For a FAQ see here
The comedy of El Nino (no, really) it’s a 1997 video.
El Nino acronyms
El Nino quotes
El Nino videos
Disclaimers- I am not a climate scientist. I am mostly collating what other people say, not pushing our own “angle”. I will get things wrong – when I do, I’ll fess up, no fuss. I will quote from “reputable” sources, but sometimes the truth is an outlandish outlier.
Blah blah information provided for lulz only. No responsibility taken for your failure to create broad-based social movements that prevent shit getting even worse and instead leading us into the pit of Sarlac.
Also, the digest’s format may well evolve over time depending on what’s doable, what’s useful, what’s liked and disliked.
The digest subtitle is inspired by the awe-inspiring and heart-breaking “CO2 Newsletter published by American geologist William Barbat from 1979 to 1982.
