Tl;dr: academic article about the microbial swingers’ event in the Strait of Hormuz is terrifying stuff.
There’s an Open Access academic article, only 8 pages long, published two weeks, about what happens when all those ships, currently stuck by the Strait of Hormuz closure, get out and about, with new bugs. Fun times. (I came to it via this important read by Charlie Angus)
I remember, in 1991 I think, reading people warning about how the fires set off by Saddam Hussein in his retreat from Kuwait might interrupt the monsoon rains in India that were crucial for feeding a billion people. It didn’t happen, but that doesn’t mean those warning about it were wrong (they never said it would definitely happen) and were irresponsible for raising the possibility.
Before this, I was trying to read diligently from both “left” (The Nation, the Village Voice) and the “right” (National Review etc). The latter really kept returning – again and again (this was the era when environmental regulation on climate might be coming) – to Paul Ehrlich’s “mass famine is INEVITABLE by the end of the 1970s” warnings.
Ehrlich, who died recently, spent decades trying – with limited success – to row back from what he said, to parse those warnings and claim that they were warnings of what COULD happen. He was by no means the most vehement “we’re all going to die soon”-er, but he was the most prominent, and the damage to his credibility was significant.
So, warnings have to be nuanced, but nuance is not what the algorithms which rule us demand. A dilemma, a kind of cognitive bottleneck.
Which brings us to the Strait of Hormuz
I did not know of the journal “Biol Invasions” – aka Biological Invasions. But why would I? Anyway, it’s unlikely to appear as the guest trade publication on “Have I Got News For You?” because it would definitely harsh everybody’s Friday night jocular vibe.
Anyway, below are some highlights. You could read the whole thing in half an hour, and have nightmares that went on for days.
In the modern history of ship lay-ups (vessels remaining at anchor or dockside for an extended period of time), the number of ships that have been trapped due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is unparalleled. More than 1500 large commercial ships remained idle in the Persian/Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, hereafter referred to collectively as the “Gulf region”, starting on February 28, 2026 (e.g., World Bank 2026). These vessels have arrived with biofouling organisms from a wide range of source regions and are now acquiring (and will likely depart with) extensive biofouling communities of microbes, algae, and invertebrates from the Gulf region. This massive intermingling of ships and biofouling will result in the inevitable release of non-indigenous species (NIS) at the lay-up sites and in the spread of marine species across the globe once the idle ships resume their trade routes.
Apparently ten days is all it would take, and we are way past Ten Days That Shook the World.
The underlying inevitability of impending species translocations is based on the typical sigmoidal (s-shaped) curve that characterizes biofouling accumulation on submerged surfaces (Daly et al. 2025). Biofouling on static surfaces can reach the rapid growth phase after 10 days (e.g., Davidson et al. 2020), which is longer than typical residence times of less than 2 days for cargo vessels in most ports. When ships are idle beyond these time frames, biofouling develops aggressively as antifouling coatings become compromised from lack of movement (e.g., Casse and Swain 2006). (emphasis added)
There are various reasons why you might get a bunch of ships at anchor in one place – festivals, mothballed military etc etc. And we’ve known about the problem for yonks.
“For example, the invasion of the Australasian barnacle Austrominius modestus to western Europe during World War II was linked to New Zealand ships being held in English ports while awaiting convoy escorts (Southward 1998). “
Southward AJ (1998) New observations on barnacles (Crustacea: cirripedia) of the Azores region. Arquipelago Life Mar Sci 16A:11–27
And here come the niches, doing their niche things…
Although a variety of vessel types and sizes operate in this region, the routine presence of a considerable number of very large ships (with correspondingly extensive submerged hull surfaces and niche areas vulnerable to biofouling) from around the world amplifies their exposure to diverse biofouling communities.
Turns out the whole damn thing is a Thunder Dome for the survival of the shittiest, a Hegsethian Petri Dish.
The Persian/Arabian Gulf is a semi enclosed sea with an average depth of 35 m, characterized by high salinity and temperature, limited water exchange, and strong evaporation (Joydas et al. 2024). Summer surface-water temperatures can reach approximately 38 °C, and winter temperatures range between 15 and 20 °C (Alosairi et al. 2011), with salinities often exceeding 40 psu (Kashkooli et al. 2022). Recent data also revealed a significant increase in the spatial and temporal extent and average number of marine heat waves in this region (Paradan et al. 2025). Extreme environmental pressures, combined with coastal industrialization and urbanization, have also directly reduced biodiversity in Gulf ecosystems (Naser 2014). These conditions are relevant to biosecurity risk because the remaining stress-tolerant taxa are more likely to survive transport, persist during vessel lay-up, and establish in recipient regions with similar or stressful environmental conditions.
Here’s a couple of maps.
It doesn’t get lighter or brighter.
“Ship biofouling also poses hidden risks. Many biofouling species are globally distributed and adapted to diverse environmental conditions (e.g., Viard and Tepolt 2025). Introducing new genetic diversity into established non-indigenous populations can promote genetic introgression, accelerating adaptation, and increasing their ability to spread and persist across a wider range of conditions (Touchard et al. 2023). In particular, the warm waters of the Gulf region are likely to select for heat-tolerant genotypes, which, if introduced to thermally-limited populations, may give them a greater adaptive buffer against future warming (Griffiths et al. 2021). “
Oh crap
Stressed ecosystems, such as industrial ports, are highly vulnerable to bioinvasion because environmental disturbances reduce community resistance (e.g., Stachowicz et al. 1999). By suppressing native species, opening up ecological niches, and increas ing resource availability, disturbances allow invasive, fast-growing opportunist (e.g., tolerant and resilient) species to establish themselves; the added influence of high resource availability may further promote invasibility (Crooks et al. 2011). In the Gulf region, invasibility is paired with massive shipping volume, providing ample opportunity for the development of NIS assemblages.
Of course, there is routine “IWC” – “in-water cleaning” of ship hulls and niche areas. But
The application of IWC will surely be incentivized because of the direct benefits on ship operations, particularly reduced drag and fuel consumption (e.g., Schultz et al. 2011). However, this scenario is unlikely for most vessels given the urgency of evacuating stranded seafarers and restoring shipping movements, and due to limited regional IWC capacity and operational constraints associated with safety and logistics. (emphasis added)
Turns out niches can be, in the old Multi-Level Perspective, places where BAD SHIT happens, and then comes up and knocks the regime and the seascape around the chops. Ha ha ha, you read it here first.
As a result, demand will likely also shift to subsequent ports of call. The capacity of IWC in many recipient ports may also be insufficient to accommodate the anticipated surge in needed services, and cleaning operations may be restricted or prohibited in some jurisdictions, creating additional bottlenecks to mitigate biosecurity risks. Finally, the current trade disruptions and shifting shipping routes are expected to reshape maritime networks and port connectivity, expanding and making less predictable biosecurity risks linked to Gulf vessel traffic.
The authors, bless them recommend
“We therefore strongly encourage a coordinated global network of safe and effective IWC services”
Yeah, good luck with that.
It’s popcorn- o’clock!!
So anyway, I learnt three words – sessile, propagoule and introgression.
And, because my brain is (quat)raining quatrains right now, these –
Thanks to Donald the fleet of ships
Is breeding up apocalypse:
Those ships will sail to other ports
And spread their germs. as ‘fun’ exports
As Daleks will exterminate
So the bugs recombinate,
Convert to something bitch and strange
A most unwelcome sea(mly) change.
To worry much is propaghoul-ish
To worry not is surely foolish
And if it IS a super-spreader
Well somehow we will get… much deader.
And this one
We made a warmer Petri Dish
And filled it full of nasty “NIS” (*)
So plenty fewer fish in sea;
As Marvin sang, oh mercy me.
- non-indigenous species (NIS)