Thirty seven years ago, on this day, October 5th, 1989,
The Costs of the Greenhouse Effect will be Unpayable
By Donella Meadows
–October 5, 1989–
Forward-thinking people are preparing for the greenhouse effect. Barge companies on the Mississippi are acquiring railroads in case the river becomes permanently unnavigable. Planners of Boston’s sewage treatment system are taking into account a sea-level rise from global warming. The Weyerhaeuser company is planting drought-resistant trees. The Dutch are raising their dikes.
Either this behavior is certifiably crazy, or it’s an apt assessment of the craziness of the human race as a whole — a reasoned bet that we will be stupid enough to let the greenhouse effect happen, instead of stopping it.
I’m not that much of a pessimist. I think we’re rational animals, at least when it comes to economics. The economics of the greenhouse effect are quite clear. We can’t afford it.
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 353ppm. As of 2026, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.
The broader context was that the greenhouse issue had exploded onto the public agenda in late ‘88, and then ‘89 you couldn’t move but for it.
The specific context was that Donella Meadows knew what she was talking about. She’d been co-author on The Limits to Growth.
What I think we can learn from this is that Meadows was right and Meadows was pointing out what the cost would be if we acted and what the cost would be if we didn’t act.
What happened next. We did not act. Meadows died far too young in 2001. And the emissions kept climbing, the concentrations kept climbing.
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On this topic, you might like these other posts on All Our Yesterdays
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References
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You can see the chronological list of All Our Yesterdays “on this day” posts here.
What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.
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Also on this day:
October 5, 1988 – Vice Presidential Debate and ‘the Greenhouse Effect’ – All Our Yesterdays
October 5, 1992 – Ignoreland hits the airwaves. #Neoliberalism – All Our Yesterdays