Forty years ago, on this day, October 19th, 1986,
Ockham’s Razor [Series 86, Episode 102] – The Greenhouse Effect, Part 2 – Effect – Doctor Brian Tucker [CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research] 19 Oct 1986 – 19 Oct 1986
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 347ppm. As of 2026, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.
The broader context was that Australian media under the ABC had been doing science programmes on television and radio which mentioned carbon dioxide build up, since the late 1960s. The very first episode of the Science Show with Robyn Williams in 1975 had as guest Peter Richie Calder, and he talked about carbon dioxide build up.
And the Science Show had kept wanging on about carbon dioxide build up, as had various ABC science programmes. Ockham’s Razor had begun in 1984…
The specific context was that the Villach meeting in October of 1985 had really stiffened the spines of atmospheric scientists. The discovery of the hole in the ozone had given them credibility and entree to elite policy making circles, and in June of 1986 the CSIRO Atmospheric Physics Division Chief Brian Tucker, who had previously written a monograph about carbon dioxide and climate, had briefed the Australian Environment Council. And so within the scientifically aware policy circles, ozone depletion, and especially carbon dioxide build-up and of greenhouse gases overall were becoming things that could no longer be ignored.
What I think we can learn from this is it is forty years since the warnings began getting a bit louder.
What happened next. The warnings broke through in 1988. They have come and gone from the front pages, but the science is ever more certain. The emissions climb, the concentrations climb. That’s all.
On this topic, you might like these other posts on All Our Yesterdays
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You can see the chronological list of All Our Yesterdays “on this day” posts here.
What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.
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Also on this day:
October 19, 1972 – EC handwringing about the environment
October 19, 1993 – Clinton handwringing
October 19, 2002 – Doctors for the Environment Australia, becomes a thing.