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Antarctica

January 31, 2002 – Antarctic ice shelf “Larsen B” begins to break up.

Twenty one years ago, on this day, January 31, 2002, things began to fall apart.

31 January 2002–7 March 2002- the Larsen B sector collapsed and broke up, 3,250 km² of ice 220 m thick, covering an area comparable to the US state of Rhode Island, disintegrated and collapsed in one season.[6] Larsen B was stable for up to 12,000 years, essentially the entire Holocene period since the last glacial period, according to Queen’s University researchers

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larsen_Ice_Shelf

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 371ppm. As of 2023 it is 419.

The context was folks had been talking about the impacts of greenhouse gas build-up on the Antarctic for a looooong time (try January 25, 1978)

What I think we can learn from this

Humans ignore warnings, especially if paying attention would be inconvenient to powerful people who have the ability to ‘help’ everyone else ignore those warnings.  Profound observation, I know – it’s what you have spent all month enjoying, no?

What happened next

It helped the film-makers who gave us “The Day After Tomorrow”(2004)  with their opening scene 

In 2005 British Sea Power’s album Open Season included a song called “Oh Larsen B”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HN0rqVJT4U

You had twelve thousand years and now it’s all over

Five hundred billion tonnes of the purest pack ice and snow

Oh Larsen B , oh won’t you fall on me?

Oh Larsen B , desalinate the barren sea

Oh I think it’s the start of the end

Like saw blades through the air

Your winter overture

What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong?  Do comment on this post.

Categories
Antarctica

Jan 26, 1978: “West Antarctic ice sheet and C02 greenhouse effect: a threat of disaster” article in Nature…

On January 26 1978, a paper was published in the journal Nature, about the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet due to rising carbon dioxide emissions. This paper, pithily titled “West Antarctic ice sheet and C02 greenhouse effect: a threat of disaster” was written by John Mercer. You can read more about Mercer (who was a bit of a character) and the fact that he’d been researching and thinking about this since (deep breath) 1968, here…

In the 1978 paper Mercer pointed out 

“A disquieting thought is that if the present highly simplified climatic models are even approximately correct, this deglaciation may be part of the price that must be paid in order to buy enough time for industrial civilisation to make the changeover from fossil fuels to other sources of energy”

Why this matters. The sea level rise, among other things. We’re toast.

What happened next? Well, we’re not there yet. But we will be soon (a while in human lifespan terms, an eyeblink geologically speaking…) And the East Antarctic Ice Sheet? Not looking too clever either…

Categories
Antarctica Ignored Warnings

Jan 23, 1995 – The Larsen B starts to break up with us.. (Ice, Ice, baby)

January 23 1995, the Larsen B ice sheet starts to splinter. This is in Antarctica. And it probably gave us the opening scene of “The Day After Tomorrow”, a not very good disaster flick from 2004f essentially a retread of nuclear war movies of the 1980s. 

The MP Chris Mullin, refers to this in his diary entry of the same day, but I cannot get hold of it right now – will update when I do.

Meanwhile, this from Squall, a wonderful newspaper from the 1990s.

Why this matters. 

The signs of the times have been with us too long before. Those poor children protesting as part of youth strike don’t always realise that since long before they were on planet they have been betrayed again and again.

 What happened next?

 We got more and more sure that the Antarctic is not stable. We’ve had warnings since 1978, (see Jan 26th post). And now well, it’s really not looking good, is it?