Forty six years ago on this day, March 26th, 1980 a truly pathetic paper found its way into the pages of Science.
Idso, S. 1980 – The Climatological Significance of a Doubling of Earth’s Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration
The abstract ran(t) as follows. [source]
The mean global increase in thermal radiation received at the surface of the earth as a consequence of a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide content is calculated to be 2.28 watts per square meter. Multiplying this forcing function by the atmosphere’s surface air temperature response function, which has recently been determined by three independent experimental analyses to have a mean global value of 0.113 K per watt per square meter, yields a value of </= 0.26 K for the resultant change in the mean global surface air temperature. This result is about one order of magnitude less than those obtained from most theoretical numerical models, but it is virtually identical to the result of a fourth experimental approach to the problem described by Newell and Dopplick. There thus appears to be a major discrepancy between current theory and experiment relative to the effects of carbon dioxide on climate. Until this discrepancy is resolved, we should not be too quick to limit our options in the selection of future energy alternatives.
And a few weeks later, there was this exchange…
From ‘Effects of Carbon Dioxide Buildup in the Atmosphere’, Hearing before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, United States Senate, April 3, 1980:
“Senator (Dale) BUMPERS. . . The fact that there has been no political response to the testimony we have had here for at least 3 years, the last 3 years, about the potential for dramatic climatic effect upon the earth by the buildup of CO2 (the point that the whole problem is such a long term problem) is well taken.
“Congress has not responded and we are getting some conflicting information too. People who have testified have not been . . . precise and definitive. …
“For example, ‘Science magazine’ on March 28 estimated that the average Earth temperature rise from doubling the world’s atmospheric CO2 is about 26 hundredths of one degree Celsius, which is about 1 tenth of the value generally estimated.
“Dr. (Gordon) MACDONALD (Chief Scientist of MITRE Corporation). Could I comment on that point?
“Senator BUMPERS. Yes.
“Dr. MACDONALD.I have looked in detail at that paper. It is a very strange paper.
“Senator BUMPERS. Shall I throw it away?
“Dr. MACDONALD. Yes. The final result is the product of two numbers. One is described very badly. The other is described as a result of the search under preparation. One can reconstruct the reasoning and do the proper calculations, and would have to multiply the second number by a factor of six, the first number by a factor of two to get the proper description, so that number is off by a factor of about 12.
“Dr. (William) KELLOGG (Senior Scientist, National Center for Atmospheric Research): I quite agree with what Dr. MacDonald has said. The conclusion is based on a calculation at the surface at a point. It does not apply to the global carbon dioxide question as it stands.
“Dr. MACDONALD. That is correct.”
(Quoted in William Barbat’s wonderful CO2 Newsletter.)
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was roughly 338ppm. As of 2026 it is 428ppm, but check here for daily measures.
The broader context was that there are always scientists who need to be “edgy”. And that is fine, because science needs doubt, conflict etc. But it has to be, you know, robust. Not demented.
The specific context was that Idso had form
What I think we can learn from this is that Idso was not the sharpest tool in the box.
What happened next. Idso kept Idsoing. He’s dead now, which is a tragedy for climate science.
What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.
References
Barbat in CO2 Newsletter
Also on this day:
March 28, 2001 – (Vice) President George Bush nixes Kyoto
March 28, 2010 – protestors block Newcastle coal terminal #auspol
March 28, 2017 – Heartland Institute spamming science teachers