Sixty eight years ago, on this day, November 6th, 1958,
By the year 2000 it may be possible to forecast good or bad summers many years ahead, an expert in climatology, Professor Gordon Manley, said in Coventry last night.
…
“There was no doubt that the ice in the polar regions was melting, resulting in an increase in sea level, he said… “If the sea level is rising to a much greater level than we think it would make quite a mess of most of our sea ports..”
Anon. 1958. Climate key explained in Coventry. Coventry Evening Telegraph, November 7, p.22
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air was 313ppm. As of 2026, when this post was published, it is 430ppm. This matters because the more carbon dioxide in the air, the more heat gets trapped. The more heat, the more extreme weather events. You can make it more complicated than that if you want, but really, it’s not. Fwiw, I have a tattoo of the Keeling Curve on my left forearm.
The broader context was that in 1938 Guy Callender had given a presentation at the Royal Meteorological Society about carbon dioxide build up and the heating of the planet. He received a lukewarm reception. However, one person who was on board was Gordon Manley, and Manley had been quoted in 1954 or ‘55 , as saying that in 30 years time we’d be growing grapes and have orange trees in the south of England.
Thespecificcontext was that it has basically been agreed by scientists studying within the International Geophysical Year, they’ve released an interim report in June that has said the world is one big greenhouse. And so here Manley is saying that seaports may be wiped out by rising sea level rise.
And it’s important to remember that whether you believed in carbon dioxide build up or not, there was enough evidence to convince everyone that the earth was warming up for whatever reason, and that ice would melt. . .
What I think we can learn from this is that the warnings were there.
What happened next – we kept emitting carbon dioxide in enormous quantities. The Fafocene is here.
On this topic, you might like these other posts on All Our Yesterdays
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You can see the chronological list of All Our Yesterdays “on this day” posts here.
What do you think? Does this pass the ‘so what?’ threshold? Have I got facts wrong? Interpretation wrong? Please do comment on this post, unless you are a denialist, obvs.
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